Initial Claims Figures Likely Statistical Noise

As a backdrop for tomorrow’s big employment report, today’s seasonally adjusted initial claims figures came in at 324K, a decrease of 5.3 percent over the prior week.  Last week’s figure was down 3.7 percent over the April 13th initial claims count. Seasonal initial claims data The seasonally adjusted data can sometimes get the adjustments wrong, but it doesn’t appear to be the case this time, with the non-seasonally adjusted figures (the actual figures) coming in lower than anticipated as well (below). The question is: is there something to the initial claims figures over the prior two weeks, or is it…