Chanos: What I’ve been kind of surprised at, and this sort of again to use the it’s never exactly the same, but to use the 2000 analog, I’ve been kind of surprised since November just how much retail investors continue to want to speculate. And that to me has been one of the things that’s kept me as exposed on the short side in our hedge fund and short fund as I have been.
I mean Cathy Wood was getting inflows for most of the first quarter, in some cases record inflows, and we see it in the meme stocks that people were still speculating every time the market stopped going down the meme stocks would jump. And every time the market stops going down my shorts typically go up 30 to 40/50% in two weeks and that’s exactly what they did in 2000 and 2001 and 2002 and people just are still… I still want to believe that this is the bottom.
I’m going to make my stand here, and I don’t know but I do know that the the willingness particularly of the people who came late to the party, the retail investor buying individual stocks or options to still speculate is still there and it’s somewhat shocking to me.
Now this latest swoon and the crypto sell-off we’re seeing may dampen some of that, we’ll have to see but that’s been one of the surprises to me is just how much people are willing to keep coming in when the market sort of stops going down buy the most speculative stocks for a bounce.
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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