In his latest interview with Real Vision, Jim Rogers discussed some historical examples which demonstrate why you’re never going to make money buying ‘hot’ stocks. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
Jim Rogers: This is not my first rodeo, Raoul. I’ve seen this movie before. Many times, people get very excited. I can remember the late ’60s, if it had computer in the name, the stock went through the roof, even if it was a laundry, it didn’t matter. Didn’t matter what it was. We’ve all seen this before. We’re seeing it in Japan, we’ve seen in America in the late ’90s. This has happened before and it’s happening again.
Whatever the hot technology is of the day, those stocks for whatever reason are very, very hot. 150 years ago, it was railroads. There was a gigantic bubbles in railroads, and you know, Raoul? Railroads are still around, but you never made money in the stocks if you bought them in the bubble.
You remember 1929? 1929, Radio Corporation of America, RCA, became unbelievably expensive. Well, we still have radio. Radio merged with CBS, etc., and they’re still there but you never made money if you bought it in the bubble, so be careful. You ask how it’s going to play out, we’ve had bubbles before, we’re going to have them again, and they always end badly. If you buy the bubble stocks, you’re probably never going to make money.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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