In this interview with ETF Think Tank, Joel Greenblatt discusses discount rates and buying stocks like you’re in the insurance business. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
Greenblatt: What I said in the book is I always use six percent as my risk-free rate.
When rates are below six percent I always use it as a benchmark, and the reason I’m saying that is if you’re buying a business and taking the risk of the business if you don’t think over time you can beat a six percent risk-free rate then I don’t consider that cheap, okay.
So it’s not a relative term it means I’m trying to make money over time. Cheap is based on valuing a business, it incorporates growth, it incorporates all the elements of what goes into… what are the cash flows you’re going to get for the next 30, 40 years, which has to incorporate growth.
It incorporates the risk of whether those earnings are going to show up or not. That’s your discount rate to figure out whether it’s going to show. So all those things are incorporated in valuing a business.
Our definition of value investing is merely value a business. That’s what stocks are. Try to pay less than it’s worth. And we try to do it in a bucket. We try to be right on average. So we used to be very selective and have very concentrated portfolios and do deep dives on everything.
Now we’re sort of in the insurance business. On average trying to do a great job and buying a bucket of stocks that are going to work out over time.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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