In her recent interview on The Investor’s Podcast, Lauren Templeton discussed two techniques her great uncle, Sir John Templeton, would use to overcome behavioral biases. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
But he [Templeton] had a lot of techniques that he used to overcome behavioral biases. So a great technique that we used here in our company that he always talked about using, and it sounds so simple, but it is very powerful and it’s just palpable in the office when you use it, is creating a wish list of securities that you would like to own that are not currently attractively priced that you would like to own if they ever fell in price.
Now, during a market sell off, even seasoned investors get very nervous and there are all sorts of physiological reasons for that. When you look at your screen and see red, your amygdala has already increased your heart rate. You probably already have shortness of breath. You may even be perspiring, and all of these things contribute to your fight or flight response taking over, and this happens to even the most serious investors.
But during these times, if you can pull out a list of securities from your desk drawer that you have researched in advance, when you are thinking rationally and you start placing orders, putting money to work during these really scary moments in the market, shifting your focus from how much money you have lost to the unbelievable opportunities ahead of you, it changes the vibe in your office immediately.
It goes from negative and scary to positive and future minded. So I highly encourage that tool and that’s just one of the small tools that I saw Sir John use throughout his career to combat some of these biases.
Another example would be he would place good to cancel orders under the market by let’s say 20%, and he would just let him sit, and occasionally you would get filled on an order. We have used that here at the office a little bit, not much, but we have gotten filled on an order using that methodology before, it was years ago.
You can listen to the entire discussion here:
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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