UBS: Le Pen Victory Could Be 5X Worse Than Greece

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Mark Melin
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Marine Le pen victory? French Elections Macron Marine Le Pen France

A Marine Le Pen victory in the French election is unlikely, but due to the potentially devastating fat tail nature of such an outcome, stress testing for extreme model divergences should be a priority, a March 28 UBS Global Macro Strategy report observes. To conduct their stress test, the UBS team, led by Strategist Lefteris Farmakis, considers two levels of “interconnectedness,” a term often associated with stress. In the end, a Le pen victory could result in a more meaningful market event by a magnitude of five than the worst Greek nightmare that could have occurred over the past few years,…

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.