“Davidson” submits:
Q4 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Real Retail and Food Service Sales report, delayed due to the government shutdown, was lower than trader expectations. The media hyped this as the “biggest drop since 2009” as if this report was economically significant. It was not! The timing of revisions which are common to the previous month’s report often include whole sections in the series as late data is received and retail categories once uncounted as insignificant are added to the series. All economic data collection is dynamic and evolves over time to capture society’s changing preferences.
This report has no particular significance when placed in context with the trend sine 2009. There is a typical volatility for the series mostly due to data collection, but the trend continues higher. The media’s focus was a typical ‘got you to look’ moment to spur advertising. What the media stated was not ‘Fake News’, but truth that this report continued the strong uptrend was not the headline which would generate ad revenue.
With Real Retail Sales, all remains good!
