Some Of Nomura's "Grey Swans" More Likely Than Others

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Mark Melin
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Uncertainty and potential volatility spikes are among analyst themes for 2017. Some analysts have predicted the US Fed will raise interest rates more than expected, while others have predicted that volatility itself will become more volatile. Nomura has taken a swipe at predicting the unpredictable by releasing a list of “10 Grey Swan Events for 2017” that, unlike the entirely unpredictable black swan, have a logical basis and, while unlikely, have potential to occur. Some of the Nomura “unlikely” predictions are actually already occurring to various degrees and are considered not entirely improbable, while others might be considered more out…

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing the impact of beta market environment on a technical trading strategy. A portfolio and industry consultant, wrote or edited three books including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008) and taught a course at Northwestern University's executive education program.