A Puzzling Anomaly: Rising PMI In The EU/US, Falling Asian Exports

HFA Padded
HFA Staff
Published on
Updated on
weak-import cycle PMI

Hitherto, an uptick in manufacturing activity (captured by Purchasing Manager Indices) in developed markets such as the EU and the US signalled a corresponding boost for exports out of Asia. But something in Deutsche Bank’s predictive model, which held up for 15 years, has changed, and Chief Economist Taimur Baig is puzzled: he has to contend with a rather large forecasting error just thrown up by the model. Asian exports appear to have lost their traditional sync with US/EU manufacturing/demand indicators, according to data through July. The blip in the US Q1 GDP was apparently not sufficient to account for…

This content is exclusively for paying members of Hedge Fund Alpha

Log In

Insider Strategies and Letters to Shareholders from the Top Hedge Funds and Maximize Your Portfolio Growth with Hedge Fund Alpha

Don’t have an account?

Subscribe now and get 7 days free!

HFA Padded

The post above is drafted by the collaboration of the Hedge Fund Alpha Team.