Hitherto, an uptick in manufacturing activity (captured by Purchasing Manager Indices) in developed markets such as the EU and the US signalled a corresponding boost for exports out of Asia. But something in Deutsche Bank’s predictive model, which held up for 15 years, has changed, and Chief Economist Taimur Baig is puzzled: he has to contend with a rather large forecasting error just thrown up by the model. Asian exports appear to have lost their traditional sync with US/EU manufacturing/demand indicators, according to data through July. The blip in the US Q1 GDP was apparently not sufficient to account for…
A Puzzling Anomaly: Rising PMI In The EU/US, Falling Asian Exports
HFA Staff
The post above is drafted by the collaboration of the Hedge Fund Alpha Team.