SALT Conference 2015 Panel I: The Other Side Of The Coin
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Panel 1: The Other Side of the Coin: A Global Macro Forecast
Chairman & Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media
Chair of President Obama's Global Development Council; Chief Economic Advisor, Allianz; Chief Executive Officer & Co-Chief Investment Officer, PIMCO (2007 – 2014)
Founder & Chief Executive Officer, XLR-8 LLC
Prime Minister George Papandreou
Prime Minister of Greece (2009-2011)
Chief Executive Officer & Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital
Director, National Economic Council and Assistant to the President for Economic Policy (2011-2014 and 1997-2001); Senior Counselor to Secretary of Treasury (2009-2011); Consultant, NBC's Award-Winning West Wing
Notes from SALT Conference 2015 Panel I: The Other Side of the Coin: A Global Macro Forecast
Talking about unemployment. Forbes ripping current govt and govt spending.
The labor market was scarred, with a V recovery.
Demographics are causing a shift in the labor markets
People need confidence and need to know the govt will take care of the fiscal issues
Peter Schiff
The Fed WILL NOT raise rates. Fed will launch QE4. They have too. If the Fed raises rates it will force us into
A huge financial crisis
Their is NO recover
Labor force participation is at an all time low – younger people staying in school
Now Sperling and Schiff going back and forth debating labor markets
Schiff says people have to go to college to get a job at McDonalds now.
Schiff says he saw crisis coming in 2007 and Sperling missed it
Mohamed El-Erian
We have over relied on the pain pills the Fed gave the economy in 2008/2009
The economic model is no longer holding together bc central banks are on different paths
Greece will have an accident
We have this illusion of liquidity — it is a delusion! He is very worried about liquidity
We have structurally changed the economic framework — broker dealers have shrunk and the end users
Are getting bigger and bigger
There is no appetite to take on systematic risk
Focus on liquidity
He worries about existing business that are fearful and hoarding cash
How to solve- corp tax reform- clean up the tax system which are anti growth
Don't underestimate the infrastructure spending
Labor market reform
We have a NOTION that governments are in control
Are we living in a new world? where governments actually are no longer in control and things will happen
50% chance of small defaults in Greece plus IOU's — Greece won't be able to control its destiny
Peter Schiff
Small businesses need consumers to save
The Fed is creating a dis incentive to save
Robert Nardelli
The world has changed
The geopolitical risk has everyone frozen
Technology is driving a TON of productivity
Seeing mega acquisitions because companies are flush with cash
Getting capital from family offices and high net worth individuals, not where they typically would find
Growth capital for start ups and new technology companies
Short-termism – he has lived with it for 40 years. more businesses SHOULD NOT give guidance/forecast
Far too many people are investing with a 90 day time horizon, which is far too short
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