“Davidson” submits:
Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
The Dallas Fed reported the 12mo Trimmed Mean PCE at 2.00%, revised lower from the 2.06% Oct report. Inflation has remained close to or at 2% since 2011. The SP500 priced at $3,150 this morning reflects a premium of 32% to its Value Investor Index(VII). The past two market peaks ranged 60%-100% premium to VII. The potential remains for the SP500 to reach past levels considering current economic trends. Three years ahead a 65% premium to the VII gives an estimated SP500 of $4,700. To be clear, this is an estimate of market psychology optimism based on past market behavior.
The VII is a better measure of buying opportunities than identifying market peaks.
