During his recent interview at Sohn, Stanley Druckenmiller explained why we will have unbelievable opportunities in the next couple of years. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
Druckenmiller: I’m happy with a portfolio right now that is not net short or not net long and only about 60 percent gross, because funny things happen when you get chaos.
The Playbook I’ve always used if I expected a bad economic outcome is to own treasuries.
Well with the 10-year yielding 350, or wherever it is today, and Fed funds at five that’s not exactly a fat pitch.
What if you’re wrong, and what if the FED panics and you get an inflationary outcome?
So that asset class is sort of off the table. We can talk about the dollar in a few minutes. I don’t have some massive short dollar position.
I may have been a little misinterpreted in an interview I did a week ago but it is a position that will move the needle at my firm.
I don’t know how long I’m going to stick with it but that is something we’re doing. But for long/short guys out there I would say you’re going to have unbelievable opportunities in the next coupla years.
There’s a lot of dispersion within industries and just make sure to preserve your capital until they present themselves. And I wouldn’t go crazy on the short side for that reason either.
You can watch the entire discussion here:
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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