The Die Is Cast For A Recession: Albert Edwards, SocGen

“One key precursor for a recession has now fallen into place. Slowing productivity growth means that unit labor costs are now running well ahead of output price inflation… This means a margin and profits downturn is now about to unfold. That typically is a key precursor of recession.” In the latest issue of ‘Global Strategy Weekly,’ SocGen’s Albert Edwards reaffirms his view that the US is in the midst of a “structural valuation bear market” that typically features a series of economic cycles in its life. These economic cycles reach successively lower lows – each triggered by a recession. The…