The U.S. Inflation Expectations Game – ValueWalk Premium
Inflation Expectations

The U.S. Inflation Expectations Game

The U.S. Inflation Expectations Game by Michele Mazzoleni, Research Affiliates

Key Points

  1. We believe the Federal Reserve is overstating the importance of falling inflation expectations, which have become disconnected from the Fed’s target and shown to be poor predictors of CPI inflation.
  2. We propose a bottom-up approach to forecasting that is independent of the expectation proxies. Our approach suggests that inflation will reach the 2% target by year-end . . .

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