Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition [Book Review]

A book review of Michael J. Mauboussin’s Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition by Capital Ideas Online Here are some parts that I have marked in my copy of the book “Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition” by Michael J. Mauboussin. “The statistical rate of success and failure must be reasonably stable over time for a reference class to be valid. If the properties of the system change, drawing inference from past data can be mis-leading. This is an important issue in personal finance, where advisers make asset allocation recommendations for their clients based on historical statistics. Because…