US Disinflation Has Reached Its Trough: Barclays

A combination of falling oil prices and a rising dollar pushed the US into deflation earlier this year, one of the reasons the Federal Reserve has signaled that a June rate hike is unlikely, but oil prices have stabilized since then and the EUR:USD exchange rate has pushed back above 1.10. Since the economy has continued to recover and wages growth is picking up, we may have already past the deflationary trough. “The US economy’s disinflationary episode of the past year is coming to an end, in our view,” write Barclays analysts Michael Gapen, Rob Martin, and Blerina Uruçi. “Near-term…