Vanshap Likes Keck Seng, Fleetwood; BHR Capital Long GLNG – ValueWalk Premium
Capitalize for Kids

Vanshap Likes Keck Seng, Fleetwood; BHR Capital Long GLNG

Evan Vanderveer is a co-founder and managing partner of Vanshap Capital, a deep value, globally oriented investment management firm, minority owned by Markel Corporation. Vanshap employs a research-intensive process to identify businesses run by disciplined management teams trading at low multiples of tangible book value or cash earnings. Vanshap Capital’s Evan Vanderveer spoke today at the Capitalize For Kids Conference in Toronto and presented his favorite idea. Below are some (very) informal notes from Vanshap pitches Keck Seng Investments Ltd (HKG:0184) and Fleetwood Corporation Limited (ASX:FWD).

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Vanshap Capital

$45m AUM

focused, global deep value investing

Vanshap Capital on Keck Seng Investments Ltd (HKG:0184)

300m USD market cap

Real estate company

North America

Own the W hotel in san francisco

Buying the Sofitel hotel in New York

Owns 7 different residental and 3 commercial buildings in Macau

Own other properties in the world

Low levered world class real estate company

Trades at 72% of tangible book, 10% fcf

Currently trading at 32% of estimated NAV

Potetnetial cataylsts

Putting the W into a REIT

Continue to sell Macau real estated

Capital back to shareholders

Very large insider ownership, makes it an illiquid stock

Bought the W in san fran for a 15% cap rate (crazy good deal)

Paying a 5% cap rate currently to buy the Hotel Sofitel for 2.1b HK$

FCF per share has doubles since 2011

Stable assets

May increase dividend

Even if they decrease the valued of the assts by 40%, you get a double from the current stock price

Vanshap Capital on Fleetwood Corporation Limited (ASX:FWD)


Manufactured Accomodation — Resource Sector, Subsidized Housing, Education

Recreational Vehicles — Camec, Coromal/WIndsor are the brand names

Trading at 70% of tangbile book value and 8x fy2015 estimated earnings

Significant underlying earnings power

50% of the net debt is associated with the govt backed cash flow stream from Osprey (subsidized housing)

Net debt to ebitda is 2-3x

EBIT has come way down

Camec has been hurt by foreign price competition, and have restructured Coromal/windsor

With restructuring and some recovery, they can get back to .45 cents of earnings, should be priced at 10x earnings or $4.50 a share (currently trading at 2.75)

Capitalize for Kids Vanshap

Michael Thompson

Michael Thompson is the Portfolio Manager for the investment vehicles managed by BHR, which he co-founded in 2009. Mr. Thompson is responsible for all portfolio construction, security selection and risk management activities and oversees BHR’s investment team. Prior to founding BHR, Mr. Thompson was with Bay Harbour Management, L.C., having joined the firm in 2008 to lead research and investment efforts in the financial and real estate sectors, including the firm’s short book, and became the portfolio manager in January 2009. Michael Thompson of Michael Thompson of BHR Capital long on Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ:GLNG)

Michael Thompson of BHR Capital pitching Golar LNG Limited (NASDAQ:GLNG)


Upstream, midstream and downstream

Management used to run Seadrill and made lots of money for shareholders there

Legacy Golar business (base case) is worth $30 (probably more)

The MLP (FLNG) is where the  real upside rests

FLNG #1 $20

FLNG#2 $5

FLNG#3 $0

*based on current share price

It is currently valued at current spot day rates, assumes no growth in the legacy business, no benefit from existing MLP

He thinks it could be worth $90

If all 3 vessels were contracted out

GLNG has been hammered in last couple months

Due to:

Hedge fund liquidation

Poor technicals

Considered highly correlated to oil

Concerns on US shale (mainly do business overseas)

If all three vessels are contracted out, he thinks GLNG should be priced at $115

Doesn’t see much downside

Comment (1)

  • zack

    is there a way to see the presentations that everyone prepared?

    October 26, 2014 at 5:47 pm


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