Variant Perception – One More Thought: Recession Risk

Via BlueRidge In our Annual Letter to investors we highlighted the collapse in the long-end curve as an indication of a maturing economic cycle (chart below): Our friends at Variant Perception, recently shared a similar perspective: A yield curve inversion has predicted every US recession since 1945, with only one false positive, in 1966 (although the false positive preceded a downturn in industrial production and a 25% decline in the DJIA). If you were a castaway on a desert island and you could only take one economic indicator with you, then you would take the yield curve. Last year, not one…