IMF On China: A Downturn is Inevitable

A recent working paper from the IMF titled “Credit Booms – Is China Different?” provides a good summary of many of the key issues facing China’s economy. Rapid credit growth since the global financial crisis is record setting for both its total expansion and its duration. Credit is being poorly used with the most inefficient sectors and firms grabbing large shares of new debt. Banks have seen rapid growth in their size and complexity and when combined with a heavy reliance on short term funding this creates a major risk of a liquidity crisis. [munger] Whilst using diplomatic language the…