In his recent Oxford Lecture, Jeremy Grantham illustrates the trouble with capitalism using his story of the devil and the farmer. Here’s an excerpt from the lecture:
Grantham: This is my story of the devil and the farmer.
The devil goes to a midwestern farmer and says, I will give you three times the profit per year if you sign the contract for your soul, and these contracts always have footnotes, and footnote 21 in this case is that they would lose one percent a year of their soil. And that didn’t worry them because they knew they were losing that anyway, which they are.
The present value of the deal with the devil was 5.6 million. A hundred years later there is no soil. It was a bargain.
But the present value in year 100 is nil. And the poor farmer up the up the road who was too dopey to take the deal, and whose present value was only 2 million who’s making do with 20, 30, 40,000 a year and has to take a part-time job to stay in business.
The present value of his farm in a hundred years, other things being even, would be exactly the same as it was at the beginning, two million.
Every MBA ever minted would make the deal with the devil or fail the course. That is the trouble with capitalism.
You can watch the entire discussion here:
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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