Le Pen Victory More Likely Than Polls Show: Goldman

There has been a strain of populist analysis circulating recently that deserves second thought. The argument that a victory for French populist candidate Marine Le Pen might actually be positive for the stock market – as it was for Brexit or the election of populist turned conservative Donald Trump – is flawed. Not only do trend patterns exhibit mean reversion at some point – the string of positive stock market returns after a populist victory might be questioned at some point — but the larger issue of France leaving the currency union is what matters. In Europe, there are very…