Scary Chart

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valueplays
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Inventory just keeps falling…….

“Davidson” submits:

Q2 2022 hedge fund letters, conferences and more

  • Total US Crude Inv decline 10.1mil BBL(decline 4.5mil in working inventory and 6.6mil decline in SPR), US Crude Prod recovers to 12.1mil BBL/Day, US Crude Imports decline 2mil BBL/Day(14mil BBL/Week), Fudge factor 0.86mil BBL/Day(5.98mil BBL/Week)
  • Refined products, Gasoline, Diesel and Jet Fuel, Inventories have stabilized after a spring drawdown and refinery input has declined a little

US Crude Production remains on a very slow recovery with a headwind from SPR releases. Crude working inventory continues a drawdown which one can interpret as an industry continuing to improve its use of working capital. US Exports of Refined Products have held near the highest levels post-COVID and the drawdown of domestic inventories show a stabilization near lowest levels since 2003 indicating the industry is keeping tight reins on working capital across the inventory spectrum.

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Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.