Tyler here.
This month I started a video series called Trading Politics over on our partner youtube channel Fallible.
Q3 2019 hedge fund letters, conferences and more
The first video introduces the most popular political prediction market in the United States, PredictIt.
In the past we’ve used the prediction markets on PredictIt to help us position our portfolio during key election events.
The two most notable ones were the Trump upset in 2016 and then the subsequent French election in 2017 when the whole world was freaking out about Le Pen taking charge.
When the markets on PredictIt diverge from the option markets going into an event there’s money to be made because someone is wrong… either the traders on PredictIt or the traders in the market.
There are multiple ways to play a disparity, you can take an outright position on a PredictIt political contract or another option is to go into traditional financial markets and find a trade that will benefit off of a political “surprise.”
Since the 2016/2017 election year, interest in politics (and betting on its outcomes) has increased considerably.
PredictIt spreads 100s of markets now ranging from election results, to impeachment odds, to weekly tweet markets for Trump.
(Yes you read that right you can make money betting on how many times Trump will tweet in a week!)
I’m starting the Trading Politics series to gear everyone up for the 2020 election year. I expect fireworks again just like the 2016 election year that will bring us a ton of opportunity to profit using the PredictIt platform as dumb money flows in to back their favorite candidate.
We recently partnered with PredictIt and they’ve given all of our readers an opportunity to earn a 100% match on their initial deposit up to $20.
All you have to do is click the link below and deposit $20, then PredictIt will match it and you can start trading on the platform!
Click here to open up a PredictIt account and claim your free $20!
I’m excited for this. Trading a market like PredictIt not only allows us to make money on the politico noise, it also serves as a valuable cross-training tool for financial trading. The skills we pick up by sniping the PredictIt mispricings will carry over into our normal trading and level us up further.
That’s all I got for today!
Happy Trading.
Article by Tyler Kling, Macro Ops
