In this interview with Jeff Cunningham at Arizona State University, Warren Buffett discusses journalists looking to confirm their hypothesis regarding a story, a lesson that is equally applicable to investors who have investing so much time and effort into a potential investment. Here’s an excerpt from the interview:
Buffett: The greatest sin they [journalists] commit… you’ve got to start a story, with a hypothesis, I mean you’re looking into something because you have a working hypothesis but you have to give up that hypothesis if it turns out not to be correct, or if it’s misleading in a major way.
So I always worry about the journalist that calls me… they’ve decided what story they’re working on and all they’re looking for is confirmatory evidence.
So I call it ‘quote shopping’, they’ll talk to me for 45 minutes hoping they get one quote that confirms their story and ignoring the other 43 minutes when I tell them things that should limit the story.
So it’s very natural you know you get time invested in it, you’ve got this working hypothesis, you know terrible what Walmart does with their employees or whatever it may be, and you may have some people who have an interest in it feeding you a lot of material along that line.
And once you’ve invested a lot of hours, and your editor knows you’ve invested a lot of hours, maybe it was the editor’s working hypothesis to start with. Now you know you got to go back and tell him he’s wrong or her I mean.
There’s a lot of momentum toward a bad story, there’s a lot of momentum toward a good story too but you have to be able as a writer to say my hypothesis is no longer correct and all it was a hypothesis that’s no sin to say that but it’s hard to do.
You can watch the entire discussion here:
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The Acquirer’s Multiple® is the valuation ratio used to find attractive takeover candidates.
It examines several financial statement items that other multiples like the price-to-earnings ratio do not, including debt, preferred stock, and minority interests; and interest, tax, depreciation, amortization.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® is calculated as follows:
Enterprise Value / Operating Earnings*
It is based on the investment strategy described in the book Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations, written by Tobias Carlisle, founder of acquirersmultiple.com.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from The Magic Formula® Earnings Yield because The Acquirer’s Multiple® uses operating earnings in place of EBIT.
Operating earnings is constructed from the top of the income statement down, where EBIT is constructed from the bottom up. Calculating operating earnings from the top down standardizes the metric, making a comparison across companies, industries and sectors possible, and, by excluding special items–earnings that a company does not expect to recur in future years–ensures that these earnings are related only to operations.
Similarly, The Acquirer’s Multiple® differs from the ordinary enterprise multiple because it uses operating earnings in place of EBITDA, which is also constructed from the bottom up.
Tobias Carlisle is also the Chief Investment Officer of Carbon Beach Asset Management LLC.
He's best known as the author of the well regarded Deep Value website Greenbackd, the book Deep Value: Why Activists Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (2014, Wiley Finance), and Quantitative Value: A Practitioner’s Guide to Automating Intelligent Investment and Eliminating Behavioral Errors (2012, Wiley Finance). He has extensive experience in investment management, business valuation, public company corporate governance, and corporate law.
Articles written for Seeking Alpha are provided by the team of analysts at acquirersmultiple.com, home of The Acquirer's Multiple Deep Value Stock Screener.
All metrics use trailing twelve month or most recent quarter data.
* The screener uses the CRSP/Compustat merged database “OIADP” line item defined as “Operating Income After Depreciation.”
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