Welcome back to 2017, where bad is back where it belongs, that is being oh so good. Inflation? Who cares? Rising interest rates? No harm, no foul. WTI north of $70? Fill ‘er up. Pricey tech stocks. Hit the bid, baby!
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Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc, Also read Lear Capital: Financial Products You Should Avoid?
The euphoric mood suits this past week’s exercise. The Great Contagion was a huge hit, at least as far as eyeball count goes. I’d like to reiterate my gratitude for your allowing me to publish it as a free report.
That said, the message didn’t go over well in certain circles, which stands to reason. It was not a friendly message for those predicting a recession might occur before the next presidential election, a predictable prediction through which a Mack truck can be driven. That’s all good and well. I anticipated the criticism and its sources.
What was less expected though was a meeting I had with a good friend, a veteran trader. He calmly explained to me that all was well, that I did not have a firm grasp on the ways of the world in which we both live, that place called Wall Street. Recession was not coming. Debt doesn’t matter. And while we’re at it, the bigger the better when it comes to the size of central bank balance sheets. I can safely say there’s nothing as grating as a colleague asserting naivete.
Confirmation bias, however, is a toxicity. So rather than dig my heels in and stick my tongue out at him, I chose to approach the matter as maturely as possible. I explored my contact base for someone who would rebut my premises in a well thought out, composed manner. And I found him. We had a deep, rich conversation and graciously agreed to disagree on some counts.
Full disclosure – my eyes were opened by the process. I can even say that I appreciate many of the counterarguments in retrospect. But don’t take that as a sign that this was an enjoyable endeavor to undertake. Writing this week’s newsletter ranked right up there with a root canal.
But that’s just life. Sometimes we have to give in to pain in order to make forward progress. It beats the hell out of the alternative.
Without further delay, please enjoy this week’s: A Beautiful Releveraging? The Devil Advocates for a Debt Jubilee.
With hopes that you take a moment to question your closely-held truths, and wishing you well,
Danielle
