Ruane, Cunniff & Goldfarb Investor Day St. Regis Hotel, New York City – May 16, 2014
Terence Paré:
Mohawk bought Marazzi, and it has a very successful business in Russia. One of the interesting things about the Russian flooring market is that after the Soviet Union collapsed, property was transferred to the citizens, and the houses that they lived in, because they previously did not own them, were in a terrible state of disrepair. The most recent statistics out of the government, and I am not sure how reliable these are, but something like 66% of the residences in Russia need very serious remodeling — which would include flooring, obviously. But the business, while significant for Marazzi, is not terribly significant within the whole of Mohawk. When I spoke to the people at Mohawk about the situation in the Ukraine, their Russian salesmen were actually pretty happy because they could now do business in the Crimea.
The other thing to remember about the flooring business is that it is not a strategic industry for Russia. It is not an oil company or a natural gas pipeline or something like that. Marazzi has been in Russia for over ten years. It is run by Russians. They are scattered all over the country. They are basically small business people. You never know what could happen in Russia, obviously. But Mohawk is not terribly concerned about any ill consequences, and I think management is being reasonable about it.
Question:
Back to Berkshire. It originally did the repurchase at 1.1 times book, and now he is gone to 1.2, do you have any comments on that?
Jon Brandt:
I think he was being too cheap when he said 1.1. He realized he was not going to get any and 1.2 is still enough below intrinsic value that it is accretive enough for shareholders. I think he was too wide-eyed when it traded there just for a little bit. I do not think he loves buying back stock, but he is starting to realize that it is good to have yet another way to build value. I think Berkshire is going to do it more if the stock trades there. I think he is reconciled to it.
Question:
What is book value?
Jon Brandt:
Book is almost $140,000, so $168,000 would be the buy price. It is interesting, it was a little below $140,000 at the end of March but the Graham Holdings deal was not closed as of March 31. When
that deal closes, the deferred taxes associated with that position go away. So on a pro forma basis that would help just a little bit. I do not know if that would have gotten book to $140,000 at March 31st, but most likely it is above that level today.
Question:
You said something about buyback right now, and I have heard a lot of praise of leadership of a number of companies through the day. Can you speak specifically with respect to IBM and its leadership, and whether you have the confidence in the leadership that it will go through with the fair amount of changes that are taking place in information technology? IBM had been through that struggle in 1990s. Does it have the bench strength, and is it doing the right things?
Will Pan:
One thing that is interesting is if you read Lou Gerstner’s book, and if you observe IBM through the years, it has been pretty well aware of technological shifts and has predicted many things. I have talked to people recently who tell me IBM had done the pioneering work in 3D printing, for instance, and it sold those patents to what became Stratasys when IBM realized that that business would be very slow to take off over time. IBM did pioneering work also in speech recognition. So it has been on top of a lot of the technological trends over time. It has done a fairly good job also of mapping and trying to understand what the opportunity set is on a commercial basis — how big the business could be and when the business could take off. It is fairly sophisticated in that, and its research department is great.
What was lacking and what we focus on now is whether IBM is properly grabbing hold of the things that it observes and invents. I think since Gerstner really came in and reenergized that company, it has done a much better job of recapturing the pieces that were not proprietary. It used to be very much a mainframe-focused company and now management has realized that it has to participate in open innovation. You saw IBM’s support of Linux, you see its support of OpenStack, and you even see IBM opening up its chips for its open power initiative, which is how IBM got Google to be interested in the technology. So we have a fair amount of confidence that out of the technology industry, IBM has a good grasp of what is coming in technology and that it could move faster. But IBM is moving pretty quickly